Cross-country comparison over absolute dates⮸
Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸
Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days⮸
Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸
Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis⮸
IMPORTANT: The projections are only accurate if the fit is good (it often isn't), and assuming nothing changes
going forward. The sigmoid is omitted if a reasonable fit can't be computed, but this still doesn't mean that
the fit is good if it is shown.
The dashed lines show best fit projections from a few previous days for comparison.
Start date 2020-03-07 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $2,000,464$ on 2020-06-10
Best fit exponential: \(2.28 \times 10^{5} \times 10^{0.011t}\) (doubling rate \(28.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,966,691.1}{1 + 10^{-0.030 (t - 53.0)}}\) (asimptote \(1,966,691.1\))
Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $112,924$ on 2020-06-10
Best fit exponential: \(1.4 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.011t}\) (doubling rate \(27.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{109,921.9}{1 + 10^{-0.037 (t - 48.0)}}\) (asimptote \(109,921.9\))
Start date 2020-03-07 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $1,354,036$ on 2020-06-10
Start date 2020-03-06 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $98,720$ on 2020-06-10
Best fit exponential: \(1.1 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.011t}\) (doubling rate \(28.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{98,643.5}{1 + 10^{-0.034 (t - 53.4)}}\) (asimptote \(98,643.5\))
Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $8,038$ on 2020-06-10
Best fit exponential: \(726 \times 10^{0.013t}\) (doubling rate \(23.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{7,980.2}{1 + 10^{-0.040 (t - 50.6)}}\) (asimptote \(7,980.2\))
Start date 2020-03-06 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $33,467$ on 2020-06-10
Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $129,184$ on 2020-06-10
Best fit exponential: \(2.9 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.020t}\) (doubling rate \(15.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{206,553.7}{1 + 10^{-0.029 (t - 77.2)}}\) (asimptote \(206,553.7\))
Start date 2020-03-28 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $15,357$ on 2020-06-10
Best fit exponential: \(374 \times 10^{0.022t}\) (doubling rate \(13.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{27,242.5}{1 + 10^{-0.031 (t - 71.9)}}\) (asimptote \(27,242.5\))
Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $19,897$ on 2020-06-10
Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $17,889$ on 2020-06-10
Best fit exponential: \(1.22 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.013t}\) (doubling rate \(23.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{23,802.4}{1 + 10^{-0.021 (t - 75.1)}}\) (asimptote \(23,802.4\))
Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $413$ on 2020-06-10
Best fit exponential: \(38.9 \times 10^{0.012t}\) (doubling rate \(25.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{407.9}{1 + 10^{-0.029 (t - 55.3)}}\) (asimptote \(407.9\))
Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $6,499$ on 2020-06-10
Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $20,808$ on 2020-06-10
Best fit exponential: \(1.49 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.013t}\) (doubling rate \(22.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{24,501.1}{1 + 10^{-0.026 (t - 64.0)}}\) (asimptote \(24,501.1\))
Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $550$ on 2020-06-10
Best fit exponential: \(98.1 \times 10^{0.010t}\) (doubling rate \(31.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{531.6}{1 + 10^{-0.033 (t - 38.5)}}\) (asimptote \(531.6\))
Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $7,940$ on 2020-06-10
Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $7,360$ on 2020-06-10
Best fit exponential: \(157 \times 10^{0.020t}\) (doubling rate \(14.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{10,522.9}{1 + 10^{-0.032 (t - 74.5)}}\) (asimptote \(10,522.9\))
Start date 2020-03-26 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $290$ on 2020-06-10
Best fit exponential: \(20.2 \times 10^{0.015t}\) (doubling rate \(19.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{414.6}{1 + 10^{-0.024 (t - 65.2)}}\) (asimptote \(414.6\))
Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $6,261$ on 2020-06-10
Start date 2020-03-22 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $8,221$ on 2020-06-10
Best fit exponential: \(59.5 \times 10^{0.027t}\) (doubling rate \(11.3\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{14,708.5}{1 + 10^{-0.038 (t - 78.6)}}\) (asimptote \(14,708.5\))
Start date 2020-04-04 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $316$ on 2020-06-10
Best fit exponential: \(0.398 \times 10^{0.043t}\) (doubling rate \(7.1\) days)
Start date 2020-03-22 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $6,401$ on 2020-06-10
Start date 2020-03-25 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $3,274$ on 2020-06-10
Best fit exponential: \(99.6 \times 10^{0.020t}\) (doubling rate \(15.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{4,201.3}{1 + 10^{-0.036 (t - 63.5)}}\) (asimptote \(4,201.3\))
Start date 2020-03-31 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $64$ on 2020-06-10
Best fit exponential: \(3.45 \times 10^{0.018t}\) (doubling rate \(16.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{107.0}{1 + 10^{-0.026 (t - 67.3)}}\) (asimptote \(107.0\))
Start date 2020-03-25 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $1,772$ on 2020-06-10
